Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 35.269489 38.087243 41.172998 44.832102 49.091829 53.944450 59.965463
2025-08-17 30.772744 34.366987 38.550613 43.872023 50.603777 59.052972 70.849815
2025-08-24 28.173726 32.102987 36.850286 43.166002 51.617137 62.992169 80.412449
2025-08-31 26.274188 30.395191 35.518170 42.579708 52.474835 66.621501 90.219555
2025-09-07 25.305284 29.707257 35.335021 43.375396 55.199721 73.262645 106.589080
2025-09-14 24.076089 28.560335 34.409782 42.990123 56.080094 77.156973 119.532923
2025-09-21 22.813759 27.269943 33.169663 41.996743 55.848624 79.107523 129.395118
2025-09-28 21.709625 26.116649 32.024857 41.015826 55.477208 80.693629 139.106366
2025-10-05 21.527581 26.187229 32.572861 42.589064 59.444189 91.029199 175.385479
2025-10-12 21.136266 25.937806 32.634058 43.399450 62.215452 99.787503 215.151722
2025-10-19 20.699210 25.594096 32.525010 43.912836 64.513562 108.207374 263.677683
2025-10-26 20.132816 25.034644 32.055110 43.783224 65.577021 114.123144 311.435235
2025-11-02 19.414179 24.249751 31.238907 43.072724 65.555100 117.770648 358.225775
2025-11-09 18.704684 23.450743 30.362918 42.199367 65.115478 120.326347 407.070741
2025-11-16 18.100817 22.778674 29.643954 41.535864 65.011941 123.813056 475.324173
2025-11-23 17.567281 22.187646 29.019397 40.987535 65.077114 127.869488 569.185648
2025-11-30 17.358108 22.065500 29.119546 41.732131 68.045436 142.114395 905.475773
2025-12-07 16.926641 21.592598 28.635720 41.371659 68.484830 148.344709 1251.254085
2025-12-14 16.403132 20.963127 27.872637 40.441493 67.488862 149.155335 1517.231139
2025-12-21 15.910491 20.365568 27.138337 39.521987 66.422190 149.449623 1846.307509
2025-12-28 15.922928 20.533593 27.653145 40.996245 71.344581 176.234389 23912.922252
2026-01-04 15.792290 20.475660 27.790690 41.754639 74.656162 199.545193 NaN
2026-01-11 15.615917 20.339351 27.788668 42.234736 77.342951 222.864411 NaN